China’s Jan-Nov crude steel output down 1.4% YoY
China’s total crude steel output during January-November totalled 935.1 million tonnes, lower by 1.4% on-year, though thanks to robust output last month, the 11-month slide was milder than the 2.2% decline recorded for January-October, the latest data released by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on December 15 showed.
Near-term outlook on China’s steel products
Below is the brief near-term outlook for five key steel products Mysteel shares on a weekly basis, drawing upon the results of related surveys and communication with Chinese market participants.
Rebar & wire rod: Prices of long steel may strengthen somewhat over December 12-16, partly thanks to relatively low stocks held by Chinese steel mills and traders. Meanwhile, demand from some end-users may be released in the near term with the country’s optimized pandemic policies.
However, domestic steel demand is likely to weaken gradually during the traditional off-season for steel consumption with the falling temperatures in northern China and the looming Chinese New Year holiday in late January, which will only lend limited support to steel prices.
Hot-rolled coil: This price may maintain the uptrend in the week ending December 16, as stocks of this product may accumulate at a slower pace with the replenishment of downstream users.
As of December 8, HRC stocks at 194 warehouses in 55 Chinese cities under Mysteel’s regular tracking had emptied for the eighth consecutive week to 2.84 million tonnes, lower by another 3.2% from the prior week.
Cold-rolled coil: The price is expected to keep range-bound this week as demand may improve to some extent thanks to optimized pandemic measures and the low stocks level at traders’ warehouses.
However, many market participants may adopt a wait-and-see tactic for the moment, and end-users just prefer to purchase some products to fulfill their immediate needs.
Medium plate: The price is likely to hover at the current level during December 12-16, as demand from downstream users is not as strong as the market had expected after the marked rise in prices over the prior week, which may persuade domestic suppliers to facilitate sales and to lower stocks at hand.
As of December 8, stocks at 217 warehouses in 65 Chinese cities under Mysteel’s survey increased slightly by 0.3% on week to 1.99 million tonnes.
Sections: Prices may remain stable this week as demand from end-users is unlikely to see any substantial recovery despite China’s optimized pandemic policies. Stocks of these products held by Chinese mills and traders stay at a low level, while some re-rollers may reduce their production given the increase in their production costs.
Source from mysteel.net
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